Tesla Shares Q4 2025 Delivery Consensus from Analysts

Tesla has released a company-compiled consensus of analyst estimates for Q4 2025 deliveries, outlining expectations for vehicles and energy storage deployments.

Tesla has published a company-compiled delivery consensus on its Investor Relations website, summarizing sell-side analysts’ expectations for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the years ahead through 2029. The document, dated December 29, 2025, clearly states that Tesla does not endorse the analysts’ conclusions and that only Q3 2025 reflects actual results, while all subsequent figures are estimates.

According to the table, Tesla delivered 497,099 vehicles in Q3 2025. By contrast, analysts’ consensus for Q4 2025 stands at around 422,850 deliveries, with the bulk coming from Model 3 and Model Y. Other models combined account for fewer than 35,000 vehicles, underlining how concentrated Tesla’s volumes remain around its core lineup.

The projected Q4 figure also highlights a sharp year-over-year contrast. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Tesla delivered 495,570 vehicles, meaning the current consensus implies a double-digit decline compared with the same period last year. This gap reflects a more cautious market outlook as 2025 draws to a close.

For the full year, analysts estimate total 2025 deliveries at roughly 1.64 million vehicles. The dispersion of forecasts remains relatively limited for near-term periods, supported by a large number of contributing estimates. Looking further ahead, the consensus points to a gradual recovery in volumes, with annual deliveries projected to rise steadily through the second half of the decade.

The report also includes expectations for Tesla’s energy business. Actual energy storage deployments reached 12.5 GWh in Q3 2025, while the Q4 consensus stands at 13.4 GWh. For the full year, analysts expect about 45.9 GWh of deployments, well above the level reported for 2024. Tesla reiterates, however, that both vehicle deliveries and energy deployments should not be viewed as direct indicators of quarterly financial performance.

Publishing a consolidated analyst consensus directly on its website marks an unusual move for Tesla. According to English-language business media, the decision follows investor requests for greater transparency around market expectations ahead of official delivery releases. At the same time, analysts link the softer Q4 outlook to heightened competition and weaker demand conditions across key markets, including Europe.