Gasoline Cars Losing Ground: Market Share Predicted to Fall to 30% by 2028

Cox Automotive forecasts that gasoline car market share will decline to 30% by 2028 as EV adoption grows. Learn about the key factors driving this shift and its implications.

The gasoline car market is rapidly losing ground. According to forecasts from Cox Automotive, the share of petrol-powered vehicles in the UK’s new car market could drop to just 30% by 2028. This marks a dramatic shift in the automotive industry, with electric vehicles (EVs) continuing to gain momentum, projected to account for around 36% of the market.

The decline of traditional combustion engines has been evident for several years. In the past four years alone, gasoline cars have lost 1.4 million units, a drop of 26.61%. Diesel vehicles have fared even worse, seeing a staggering 76% decline since 2020, now making up just around 6% of the market.

The surge in EV adoption is driven by a combination of stricter environmental regulations and changing consumer preferences. Governments are tightening emissions standards, making the production of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles less viable. Rising fuel prices are also pushing consumers away from petrol cars, as operating costs become increasingly burdensome. At the same time, more drivers are recognizing the benefits of EVs, such as lower fuel and maintenance expenses, and are making the switch.

However, infrastructure remains a key hurdle in the transition. The UK is actively expanding its charging network, but availability remains an issue, particularly in rural areas. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), similar challenges exist in many countries, highlighting the need for further investment in charging infrastructure.

Despite the rapid rise in EV sales, they still fall short of the targets set by the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate. This means automakers and policymakers must continue working to drive demand and refine technology. New players like BYD, Jaecoo, Omoda, and Skywell are already entering the market, offering increasingly affordable and competitive EV models.

The automotive industry is on the cusp of a major transformation. While gasoline-powered cars won’t disappear overnight, their dominance is fading fast. The key question now is how quickly the infrastructure and policies can evolve to make EVs not just a growing trend, but the new normal.