EV forecasts drop, China dominates, hybrids surge through 2025

EV growth projections fall to 27% in the US, China drives global supply, hybrids expand as buyers seek alternatives in 2025.

Just a few years ago, the future seemed wired for electric. Bold projections foresaw electric vehicles (EVs) claiming nearly half of all U.S. car sales by 2030 — a figure echoed across Europe and China. Fast forward to today, and the mood has shifted. BloombergNEF now expects only 27% EV penetration in the U.S. by that time. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is also scaling down its global forecast to between 33% and 45%. The reasons are complex: slowing consumer interest, political backpedaling, and — in the U.S. especially — a sudden evaporation of tax credits that once fueled EV momentum.

Meanwhile, China is forging ahead. The country already accounts for 66% of global EV production and exports more than 1.2 million units annually. But it’s not all smooth sailing. Cutthroat domestic competition has prompted the Chinese government to intervene, curbing unsustainable pricing wars. Still, its grip on the global EV supply chain remains firm — and growing.

Amid these shifts, hybrids are making a comeback. Models like HEVs and PHEVs offer a practical bridge: easier to manufacture, cheaper to buy, and less dependent on charging infrastructure. In 2024, hybrid sales jumped by 19%, and analysts expect another 23% boost in 2025. Major automakers, from Toyota to Hyundai-Kia, are betting big on expanding their hybrid portfolios.

But electrification has a darker edge. Old internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are increasingly dumped in low-regulation countries. According to the UN and Vox, exports from the U.S., Europe, and Japan to parts of Africa, Asia, and Latin America are driving up pollution and stalling climate gains. Reuters reveals that some Chinese cars labeled “used” have never even been driven — so-called “zero-mileage” vehicles sent abroad as second-hand, often to Russia or the Middle East.

Looking ahead, the picture is anything but linear. On one hand, the rise of software-defined vehicles (SDVs), cybersecurity frameworks, and OTA updates suggests a smarter, more connected era. On the other, the market is recalibrating — searching for balance between ambition and realism, innovation and daily functionality.

Electrification is happening, but not as swiftly — or uniformly — as once imagined. A decade or so from now, the global car landscape may not be fully electric, but richly hybrid. EVs, hybrids, autonomous vehicles, and even updated ICE models could coexist — each serving different geographies and economic realities. In that world, agility — not just innovation — will be the key to staying in the driver's seat.